The impact of changes in second pension pillars on public finances in Central and Eastern Europe: The case of Poland

This paper studies the impact of the recent weakening of Poland's fully funded defined contribution second pension pillar on (i) the long-term sustainability (the deficit and implicit debt) of the full pension system and (ii) the implications for pension benefits (gross replacement rates). Simulation results, based on a stylised version of the Polish pension system, show that, in the baseline scenario, the weakening of the second pillar would permanently lower future pension system debt, chiefly as a result of a cut in replacement rates. But using a combination of pessimistic assumptions including strong population ageing, low real wage growth and an indexation of existing pension benefits on nominal wage growth rather than inflation coupled with bringing in tax expenditures related to the third voluntary pension pillar and an increase in the share of minimum pensioners leads to higher pension system deficits and eventually more public debt at a very long horizon. The simulation results also suggest that if Poland had not transformed its pay-as-you-go first pension pillar into a defined contribution from a defined benefit system, the weakening of the second pillar would deteriorate fiscal sustainability relatively quickly in the baseline scenario. This result suggests that the Hungarian pension reversal would reduce deficit and debt only temporarily, mainly because of Hungary's costly defined benefit first pension pillar: the weakening of the second pillar is tantamount to swapping low current replacement rates (in the defined contribution second pillar) against high future replacement rates in the defined benefit first pension pillar.     

Bulgaria's Long March Towards Meaningful Credit Contracts

This article is based on the hypothesis that the development of creditors' remedies and their actual practicability is a good yardstick for progress towards the rule of law. According to this measure Bulgaria achieved little progress throughout much of the 1990s, but this improved significantly after 1997. Legal reforms were only one among several factors driving this progress; among the others were macroeconomic stabilisation, privatisation, the disintegration of trade unions and the ultimate failure of attempts to keep most of the socialist giants alive. Only the recognition of this failure facilitated some crucial reforms; nevertheless these reforms have been too halfhearted to put creditors' rights on a secure footing. In actual fact debtors have remained a very well protected group.     

Accuracy of management and security analysts' forecasts: Additional evidence

This paper provides further support for findings in studies by Basi, Carey, and Twark [2] and Ruland [5] which indicated no statistically significant superiority of management over analysts in forecasting earnings per share. These somewhat surprising findings are seen to flow from several possible sources. Lack of superior management forecasting performance may reflect (1) a considerable sharing of the forecast or forecast-related information by management with analysts, or (2) firm-specific data (to which management is more privy) may be less important in forecasting performance than data on economy-wide movements.     

Policy aspects of driver support systems implementation: results of an international Delphi study

Driver support systems are generally assumed to contribute to public traffic goals. However, much uncertainty exists about their future: technology development, market introduction and impacts on driver and traffic behaviour. An international Delphi study, collecting expert opinions on these issues, is describe this paper. In three rounds opinions were collected from 50 experts from USA, Japan and Europe. The article focuses on market introduction, driver behaviour, general barriers and policy options.     

Two experiments in one: How accounting for context matters for welfare estimates

By combining two different types of experiments in one experimental session, this paper aims at understanding how different contexts may influence participants’ choices. This paper focuses on one hybrid experimental session that mixed one voluntary contributions mechanism (VCM), influencing the indemnity received by participants, and one mechanism eliciting willingness to pay (WTP) for milk bottles with public and private attributes. The VCM shows relatively high levels of contributions that are mainly influenced by the positive expectations of participants about the average group contribution, rather than by the variations in the design of this mechanism and the period of experiments. The WTP for milk bottles are particularly sensitive to the order of mechanisms and to the period of experiments. Conversely, the WTP differences between milk bottles for a given round of information are invariant across the order of mechanisms and the period of experiments. For each bottle, the variations of WTP coming from the messages about private and public attributes are also stable over the order of mechanisms and the period of experiments. This confers validity to experiments for measuring WTP for public and private attributes related to food. In other words, these variations of WTP contribute to welfare estimates and are useful to evaluate market regulations focusing on public and/or private attributes.     

Tax Revenue Effects of Sectoral Growth and Public Expenditure in Uganda

This paper contributes to a growing strand of literature on the determinants of tax revenue performance in developing countries, particularly in Sub‐Saharan Africa. More specifically we estimate the tax elasticities of sectoral output growth and public expenditure. The unique features of this paper are twofold: First, we develop a simple analytical model for tax revenue performance taking into account some structural features pervasive in most developing countries with large informal sectors. Second, we test the model predictions on Ugandan time series data using ARDL bounds testing techniques. Results indicate that dominance of the agricultural and informal sectors pose the largest impediments to tax revenue performance. In addition development expenditures, trade openness, and industrial sector growth are positively associated with tax revenue performance. We propose policies to support the development of value added linkages between agricultural and industrial sectors while emphasizing the need to unlock the potentially large contributions of the informal sector with a view of widening the tax base.     

A framework proposal for sustainability assessment of sugarcane in Brazil

In many countries, the biofuels sector was encouraged to expand its activities supported by public policies incentives, especially to achieve improvements in energy security and to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. The Brazilian government followed these initiatives and undertook some responsibilities against the international scenario related to climate change. One of the theses commitments concerning actions to reduce the GEE emissions by some 37% by 2020. The Sugarcane Agroecology Zoning provides technical subside to policy makers to direct sugarcane expansion to permitted areas and a sustainable production in Brazil and is considered a guideline to sustainable sugarcane production in Brazil. However, although aiming at a sustainable production, the zoning only considered natural aspects of the country, as soils and climate and an approach that consider all the dimensions of the sustainability is still missing. Hence, this paper aims to propose a framework to evaluate biofuel sustainability to support public policies, especially concerning improvements in Brazilian decision-supporting tools.     

The challenge of using standard contracts in public–private partnerships

A call for an increased use of standard contracts in public–private partnerships (PPPs) for infrastructure development is noticeable in practice. These contracts are expected to simplify and improve procurement by creating opportunities for learning, lower transaction costs, and better competition. This paper delineates standard contracts in PPP as a new venue for research and unfolds their potential impact. Here lies an important challenge since the benefits of standardization are not as straightforward as they look at first sight, particularly when taking into account the tension between the powerful, control-oriented role of contracting authorities and the need for contingent, informal contracting.     

Time horizons and discount rates in Swedish environmental policy: Who decides and on what grounds?

Interviews with Swedish authorities reveal large variations in the time horizons and discount rates used in their policy decisions. The time horizon, i.e. the future time period for which effects are included in the analysis, is seldom longer than 40–50 years, and nuclear waste is the only area in which a time horizon longer than 100 years is used regularly. Discount rates for non-commercial purposes vary between 2 per cent and 4 per cent, with 4 per cent as the most common rate. The differences between policy areas appear to be unsystematic and insufficiently justified. We suggest that there may be a need for co-ordination and, possibly, harmonization, of the choices of time horizons and discount rates.     

我国公共农业R&D投资变化及其国际比较研究

研究了我国公共农业RD投资现状及其变化趋势,并从全球各地区、金砖国家及新兴国家层面进行了国际比较。结果表明,我国公共农业RD投资增长迅猛,投资总额位居金砖国家及新兴国家之首,但投资稳定性不容乐观且投资强度明显不足;公共农业RD投资以政府部门为主,重点扶持农业和农、林、牧、渔服务业。政府应提高公共农业RD投资强度,确保投资稳定性,使资金适量向林业、畜牧业及渔业倾斜,同时鼓励私人部门对公共农业RD进行投资。